Now you may be asking "What qualifies YOU to give ME advice on what to do? Isn't the tournament unpredictable? Weren't you terrible at fantasy football last year?" First of all, the last point doesn't matter. That's a different sport. Please stop. Secondly, I'll begin with my storied history as a March Madness enthusiast. I began taking bracketology seriously around 2014 in my Sophomore year of college. During the last decade-plus, I have been dedicated to the craft of using advanced metrics in order to create the most accurate bracket possible. Through evaluating the betting markets, advanced metrics such as KenPom.com (I will be referencing the KenPom ratings frequently), and injecting a little bit of personal bias, I am able to routinely create brackets that are at least in the upper half of any bracket challenge. My efforts have led to multiple 1st place finishes in leagues with all three of the major categories of bracket groups: Friends, Family, and Coworkers.
Whether you agree with my matchup-based takes or not, my goal is for each of you to leave here with more knowledge about the teams you may have not heard of and learn more about the strengths of the teams you have heard of. With this knowledge in hand, you'll be better prepared to dominate your competition during the most unique and enjoyable tournament that US sports has to offer. Let's get started!
Note: This is a tough one to format, so I'll do my best. I'm going to start with the First four and then go region by region. I am going to be sorting by matchup rather than going from 1st to 16 in order.
Note 2: I've been mentioning "Quad 1" wins a lot when writing this, so I'll mention the definition here. "Quads" refer to a common measure of quality in NCAA basketball and is used by the selection committee. Quad 1 is the strongest opposition. You may also read "the Big Dance" or "the Dance", those are different ways to refer to the Division 1 NCAA Tournament, colloquially known as March Madness.
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| It may be helpful to follow along using a blank bracket here. |
First Four
Since 2011, eight teams have battled it out to be the last four entrants into the tournament. These four games are now referred to as the "First Four". This year, two of these games will decide the remaining 16 seeds and two of these games decide the remaining 11 seeds. Why care about these teams? Well, in the last 13 years we have had 13 of these teams win multiple games in the tournament, including two final four appearances. 2019 was the only year that a first four team didn't win at least two games. Plus we have a little drama this year with the first four! The University of North Carolina was selected as one of these teams in a shock decision. More on them to come.
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| Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) went from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011, the first year of the new format |
11. San Diego State
The Aztecs notably forced OT against Houston back in November and are led by guard Nick Boyd, one of FAU's starters during their final four run in 2023. They have a great defense but a middling offense, so Nick Boyd will have to show up with some buckets if they want to make a deep run, something they are definitely capable of doing.
11. North Carolina
And here we are. The most controversial team of the tournament. They were an eye-watering 1-12 in games against Quad 1 teams (common measure of quality games in NCAA basketball) but lost most of these in a close fashion, which helps them from an analytical standpoint as they are surprisingly 33rd in KenPom's rankings. UNC could theoretically do something, but it would be much more fun to have San Diego State in the Dance.
And here we are. The most controversial team of the tournament. They were an eye-watering 1-12 in games against Quad 1 teams (common measure of quality games in NCAA basketball) but lost most of these in a close fashion, which helps them from an analytical standpoint as they are surprisingly 33rd in KenPom's rankings. UNC could theoretically do something, but it would be much more fun to have San Diego State in the Dance.
11. Xavier
A perennial "I've heard of them from March Madness" school, Xavier rode a 7-game win streak into their conference tournament, where they lost to Jimmy Butler's alma mater Marquette. They're ranked exactly 1 spot ahead of Texas in KenPom's rankings and would slot nicely into a soft North region.
11. Texas
Another controversial pick from the committee. Texas were just 6-12 in SEC play and were 5-13 against top 50 teams per KenPom. It's best to treat them as if they were playing Georgia in football and fade them completely.
16. Alabama State
The Hornets have won 10 of their last 11 and are making their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2011. They are coached by Tony Madlock, who played for the 1992 Memphis Elite Eight team along with Penny Hardaway. They'll win their first four game against St. Francis and then hopefully lose to Auburn.
16. St. Francis
They were 16-17 this year and are the lowest ranked team per KenPom (311th) to be involved in the tournament. Although they are only 3.5 point dogs to Alabama State, you can safely ignore them until proven otherwise.
16. American University
Led by 5th year senior Matt Rogers, American University is a team that could do some damage by beating Mount St. Mary's and then immediately losing to Duke.
16. Mount St. Mary's
This team is coached by Donny Lind, who was a video coordinator for VCU when they went from the First Four in all the way to the Final Four in 2011. Can he channel that same First Four magic?
South Region
1. Auburn
Led by their first-team All American senior Johnni Broome (who averages not only 19 points/game but also 10.6 rebounds/game), Auburn has what it takes to go all the way this year. Although they stumbled down the stretch, losing 3 of their last 4, they could regain momentum by beating up on the "little guys" and leaning on the strong coaching of Bruce Pearl.
First Four - 16. Alabama State or 16. St. Francis
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| The South features both (1) Auburn and (2) Michigan State Both teams won their conference's regular season titles |
8. Louisville
Playing out of their home state for their first two rounds should be a huge benefit for the Cardinals. The Auburn faithful aren't happy about their region's 8-seed, which tells you all you need to know.
9. Creighton
The Bluejays are led by four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner and are making their fifth consecutive tournament appearance. Even after losing their top scorer for the season in December, they were still able to manage to put together a great year that could continue.
5. Michigan
Even after winning the Big 10 tournament, Michigan is still a popular pick to go out in the first round. It could be more because of the opposition, but it is interesting to note.
12. UC San Diego
The Tritons are currently tied for the nation's longest winning streak at 15 and have just made their first NCAA tournament in their first year of eligibility. Whatever the result, this is exactly the type of team that we cheer for in March.
4. Texas A&M
The Aggies were 11-7 in the SEC, so our thoughts about Texas A&M are purely based on whether we think the 2025 SEC is the best college basketball conference of all time. They have the 7th-best defense in the country per KenPom and have had some impressive wins despite a 7-9 record in Quad 1 games.
12. Yale
This year's Ivy League champions are looking to make noise for the second year in a row after knocking out Auburn in the first round last year. They lost their only Quad 1 game and are ranked terribly (73rd) by KenPom, so anyone going for Yale is doing it for the vibes.
6. Ole Miss
Making their first tournament appearance since 2019 are the Rebels and their unique brand of small ball. They make up for their lack of size by having the 3rd-lowest turnover rate in the nation, something that's important when playing one-off games in March.
First Four - 11. San Diego State or North Carolina
3. Iowa State
Coming off a quarterfinal loss to BYU in the Big 12 tournament where they lost star guard Keshon Gilbert, this is one of those teams where things went wrong at the last moment. They're ranked 10th on KenPom and are still 14.5 favorites against Lipscomb, but how deep can they go?
14. Lipscomb
The Bisons were an unfortunate 0-2 in quad 1 games against Kentucky and Arkansas, who are on the weaker side of that definition. Not much else to say!
7. Marquette
4-6 in their last 10 regular season games is not the best look, but they were able to put together a good showing and win their conference tournament by beating Xavier in the final. They are experienced, efficient, and have good odds to make the Sweet 16.
10. New Mexico
The Lobos are led by current St. John's and longtime NCAA basketball coach Rick Pitino's son, Richard. This is their first appearance since 2014 and they have a good enough defense (19th per KenPom) to potentially make some noise.
2. Michigan State
Tom Izzo has coached Michigan State since 1995, so 30 years now! These perennial contenders were riding an 8-game win streak before losing to Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament. They have a middle of the pack offense but a top 5 defense. They are more than capable of making a deep run this year.
15. Bryant
The Bulldogs have a huge roster (every starter is above 6 foot 6) and are 17-2 since the turn of the year. Making their second-ever appearance in the tournament, the big dogs are just that against the Spartans - by 17.5 points.
West Region
1. Florida
The Gators are co-favorites to win it all alongside Duke, and for good reason. They have the best offense in the league, led by the program's first ever first-team All American guard Walter Clayton Jr. This roster is incredibly deep, too: Alijah Martin has made a deep run before with FAU in 2023, Will Richard is averaging 14 points/game, and Alex Condon headlines the best offensive rebounding team in the country.
16. Norfolk State
The Spartans just won their conference title in dramatic fashion with a 66-65 win over South Carolina State. In their third tournament appearance from the last five, do they have what it takes to pull off an upset?
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| The Florida Gators won the toughest division in basketball, but can they keep their momentum? |
8. UConn
The Huskies are coming off back to back National Championships, a feat that hadn't occurred since Florida did it in 2006-2007. They are looking for the first 3peat since John Wooden's UCLA in the 70s. They've lost a lot of key players, though. Does this version of the team have what it takes?
9. Oklahoma
Coming off a 6-12 record in conference play, the Sooners are welcoming the opportunity to play against non-SEC teams in the Dance. They have a good offense, but their defense ranked 14th out of 16th in the stacked SEC. Only true southern believers will think Oklahoma has a chance get something going.
5. Memphis
Penny Hardaway highlights the intrigue in this Memphis team who are looking for their first tournament win since 2009. Perhaps the committee is choosing to believe the hype that the analytics are not. KenPom has the Tigers at 51st, easily the lowest rating of all 5 seeds.
12. Colorado State
The Rams have lost three total games since the turn of the year and all were on the road to top-60 ranked KenPom teams. They're riding a conference title and a 10-win streak into the Dance and are looking to ride the lethal 3-point shooting of Nique Clifford, a player with the potential to break out into the public eye this March.
4. Maryland
The "Crab Five", the nation's best starting lineup, have been causing a lot of buzz in the bracket world. One of those five is none other than Julian Reese, WNBA star Angel Reese's brother. This team is a favorite non-chalk final four pick, but do they have the depth to make a deep run?
13. Grand Canyon
Coach Bryce Drew has led this team to four tournament berths out of five. This team is always in the conversion, but it remains to be seen if they can slow down a lineup with a name like the "Crab Five."
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| The Crab Five are ready to make some noise |
6. Missouri
Notably the only team to beat Florida at home this year, the Tigers are one of the biggest reasons the SEC is considered so stacked this year. In addition to Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, and even Kentucky, you have a team like Missouri that is more than capable of winning a few games in March.
11. Drake
Everybody loves the Drake. With a 2-0 record in quad 1 wins, this is a team that tends to achieve when given the chance. They are in the tournament for the fourth time in the last five years, with 136 victories in that span. Although they are the lowest rated 11-seed per KenPom, is a vintage march madness team.
3. Texas Tech
The Red Raiders are the best 3-seed according to KenPom, rocking an astonishingly high 6th place offensive rating. They were the only team to beat Houston on the road this season and finished 2nd in the Big 12 behind them. This team is as flashy as it gets and should not be overlooked when considering dark horse final four teams. If JT Toppin becomes a household name, you'll remember reading this.
14. UNC Wilmington
Coming into the dance for the first time in eight years, the Seahawks are likely happy with "just being here." But as is always the case, they can shock the world by beating a Texas Tech team that was just 1-4 against top 25 opponents.
7. Kansas
After entering the season as the AP preseason number 1, you can probably imagine that the Jayhawks haven't necessarily lived up to expectations. They are nevertheless still coached by Bill Self and have the 11th-ranked defense per KenPom.
10. Arkansas
Yet another SEC team that probably would've been a contender in any other conference, we have the Razorbacks. Now coached by legendary Kentucky coach and familiar Kansas rival John Calipari, they think they have what it takes to win some games in March. This is, without a doubt, the most interesting Round of 64 matchup.
2. St. John's
If you're a basketball fan or a bandwagon fan like Spike Lee is, you've surely heard of what's been going on with St. John's and their new coach Rick Pitino. The longtime Louisville coach and controversial figure has bounced around over the past few years, but may have found a home in Queens. The Red Storm have arguably the most interesting narrative in the Dance and will be all over headlines regardless of how their tournament goes.
15. Omaha
After going 22-12 in the Summit League, Omaha finds themselves with a tough draw. The most interesting thing about this team is their postgame celebration. When they win, they find the nearest trash can and destroy it. If they beat St. John's, we're going to see an unlucky trash can go viral.
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| RIP Nebraskan Trash Cans |
East Region
1. Duke
The belle of the ball. Cooper Flagg is considered by many to be the best player in college basketball. He got injured during the team's ACC tournament run (which they won anyways), but he should be back and healthy for the tournament. As evidenced by their dominate ACC tournament without him, this team is deep. With the 3rd-best offense and 4th-best defense per KenPom, there's a real reason they are co-favorites to win it all.
First Four - 16. American or 16. Mount St. Mary's
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| Duke managed to win the ACC tournament despite the loss of Cooper Flagg |
8. Mississippi State
Making their third consecutive tournament are the Bulldogs and their 8-10 SEC record. They have Josh Hubbard, a second-team All American, who could definitely carry them to a few wins in March.
9. Baylor
While the Bears don't have a great seed like they normally do, they don't lack star power. VJ Edgecombe is a projected top-five lottery pick in the next NBA draft. But will he be enough to carry this underachieving team?
5. Oregon
While the Ducks don't possess any particular strengths, they do a lot of things well enough. They rode a 7-game winning streak into their conference tournament, where they eventually ran into the brick wall that is Michigan State. Despite that loss, this team got hot at the right time - something that we love to see in a sleeper Sweet 16 pick.
12. Liberty
As the lowest-ranked 12 seed per KenPom, nobody seems to have much to say about this team. The Flames have won their conference tournament six out of the last seven years, so they're familiar with the Dance. Regardless, they are 7.5 point underdogs against the Ducks which is pretty heavy in a 12 v 5 matchup.
4. Arizona
Coming off a devastating 3-5 record in their last eight regular season games, the Wildcats are cold at the wrong time. A team that was once challenging Houston for the Big 12 title lost both the regular season and tournament to them. It remains to be seen whether they can pick up where they left off in January.
13. Akron
Coach John Groce just had to beat his brother's team, Miami (OH), in the MAC tournament to secure their NCAA bid. That must be a bittersweet feeling and he'll have to shake that off if the Zips want to have a chance at beating the Big 12 runner up Arizona.
6. BYU
While they don't yet have the No. 1 overall 2025 recruit they landed, the Cougars are still ready to roll in 2025. After pulling an upset against Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament semifinals, they even have a little momentum on their side. They have a very enticing +600 chance to make the Elite Eight.
11. VCU
Coach Ryan Odom is something of an NCAA tournament legend. In 2018, his 16-seed UMBC team upset 1-seed Virginia for the first ever 16-seed upset. Since then, he's led Utah State and now VCU to the tournament. Odom is now someone that can never be counted out.
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| UMBC held up their 1s after downing 1-seed Virginia in 2018 |
3. Wisconsin
John Tonje, a transfer from Missouri, has led this team to an amazing 26-9 record albeit with an easy schedule. After dropping three of their last five games, they'll need him to show up in order to regain their momentum.
14. Montana
They've won 14 of their last 15 and are absolutely lethal from the perimeter. Those are characteristics you're looking for when searching for Cinderellas. Their defense is absolutely terrible (250th per KenPom) but they have a very respectable offense that's capable of shocking somebody.
7. Saint Mary's
Sporting a very enticing +300 to make the Sweet 16 are longtime coach Randy Bennett's Grizzlies. They are KenPom's 2nd highest rated 7-seed with an extremely impressive 8th-ranked defense. If you're looking for a 7-seed that can make some noise, look no further.
10. Vanderbilt
The Commies have made the tournament for the first time since 2017, even after a first round SEC tournament exit to First Four team Texas. They had the worst defense in the conference but managed to pull off some eye-catching wins against Tennessee, Kentucky, and Missouri during league play.
2. Alabama
The Tide fell to Florida in the semifinals of the SEC tournament in decisive fashion after losing star Grant Nelson to injury. They've since received good news about the injury and he should return for the tournament. Alabama has the 4th best offense per KonPom but an extremely lackluster defense, as evidenced by the Gators hanging an SEC tournament record 104 points on them.
15. Robert Morris
The Colonials have just snapped a 10-year NCAA tournament drought and are absolutely just happy to be here. Their conference has notably won at least one tournament game in two of the last three seasons, so it'll be interesting to see of projected NBA lottery pick Ace Bailey can go giant killing.
North Region
1. Houston
The Cougars have made it to at least the Sweet 16 in each of their past five seasons. This includes one Final Four and one Elite Eight appearance. This team is the definition of consistency and this year is not expected to be any different, especially after their Big 12 tournament win.
16. SIU Edwardsville
The Cougars(!) are making their first-ever Division 1 NCAA tournament appearance, 17 years after making the transition from division 2. I'm sure they are really proud of that!
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| The 1-seed Houston Cougars have been the face of consistency |
8. Gonzaga
Those familiar with March Madness may be surprised to see the Bulldogs down at an 8-seed. You may also be surprised to hear about their 3-5 record against top 50-ranked KenPom teams. Perhaps it's a legacy take that they have very intriguing +400 odds to make the Elite Eight. Or perhaps they were underrated by the committee. After all, they are the 9th best team per KenPom, which is easily the highest of all 8-seeds.
9. Georgia
Once a bubble team, the Bulldogs(!) avoided having to play in the First Four after a late season win against Florida and a respectable showing in the SEC tournament...where they lost their first game to Oklahoma. Former Gators coach Mike White is no stranger to leading Just Fine teams in March.
5. Clemson
Triumphant in 14 of their last 15 regular season games, which includes a win over Duke, the Tigers are the highest rated 5-seed per KenPom. With a 5-3 record in Quad 1 games and 8-2 in Quad 2 games, this team has more than a few impressive wins this year. Though they lost to Louisville in the ACC tournament, Clemson appears equipped to make a deep run this year.
12. McNeese
Coach Will Wade was fired from LSU three years ago after some major NCAA violations. He found his rehabilitation at McNeese, where he's led the Cowboys to two consecutive appearances in the Dance. Big schools with coaching vacancies will be closely watching.
4. Purdue
Braden Smith is one of the best guards in the country and was just crowned as a first team All-American. Whether the Boilermakers can bounce back after losing to UConn in the finals last year remains to be seen. It also remains to be seen whether they can bounce back after dropping 5 of their last 7 regular season games.
13. High Point
The Panthers came close to making the tournament last year, but fell in overtime to eventual champions Longwood. They finished the job this year while riding the nation's longest winning streak at 14 games. This team also has a flashy 25th best offense per KenPom, so if they can drain some 3s they can absolutely do some damage this year.
6. Illinois
The Fighting Illini made the Elite Eight last year but sadly lost every key player after that. What they still have are two projected first round NBA draft picks in Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley. This team is healthy and hot at the right time with an insanely respectable +350 odds to return to the Elite Eight, this time as a 6-seed.
First Four - 11. Texas or 11. Xavier
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| Illinois made the Elite Eight last year as a 3-seed before losing to UConn Can they return? |
2. Kentucky
First-season head coach Mark Pope has had quite the start to his tenure at the school. The Wildcats had an 11-10 record in Quad 1 games, which includes wins against eight AP top-15 teams. Though they've been bit by the injury bug recently, they have all the tools to put together to make their first Sweet 16 appearance since before COVID.
14. Troy
The Sun Belt champions have lost just one game since early February and won each of their conference tournament games by an average of 16 points. They dominated their competition, but were 0-3 in Quad 1 games that were all on the road this year.
7. UCLA
A team that their coach once called "soft", the Bruins clearly didn't enjoy that term. They won 11 out of their last 14 regular season games during their inaugural Big 10 season, which included some flashy wins over Michigan State, Oregon, and Wisconsin.
10. Utah State
First-year head coach Jerrod Calhoun has led the Aggies to their third consecutive NCAA tournament appearance. Although they were just 2-4 in Quad 1 games this year, this team shoots very well from 3 and are the 17th ranked offense per KenPom, meaning they can beat anyone if the shots land right.
2. Tennessee
Riding their 3rd ranked defense per KenPom, the Volunteers held the AP Number 1 spot for a minute during SEC play and have made the Dance for the fifth straight year. Longtime coach Rick Barnes has retirement rumors swirling and if that's the case, this talented group will want to send him off with a smile.
15. Wofford
Despite losing by 51 points to Duke in November, the Terriers have arrived on college basketball's biggest stage. Although they never won more than three games in a row, they made 44% of their 3s during their conference tournament - something that is always a good sign heading into March.
To all who either read or skimmed this far, thank you for reading! I hope you were both entertained and educated. Enjoy the Dance!
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